ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Eaglewin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Trustloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eagle
Muertaoften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Magnus
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Necrophosoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Shadow Demon
mercy · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Tz. · 1 game
Team Trust
Kunkkaoften banned
blessing · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
出省 · 2 games
Chenoften banned
出省 · 2 games
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
blessing · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Linaoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 85 bans
Grimstroke
195 picks · 222 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 395 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
167 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:16
Eagle 49%Team Trust 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Trust — the game was taken by Eagle in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingukiyo
MeepoRA1NCLOUD
KunkkaButterflyEffect
Storm Spiritblessing
Batridermercy
Nature's Prophet出省
UndyingTz.
Game 2prediction correct22:2
Eagle 50%Team Trust 50%
The model gave 50% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 14:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverukiyo
MuertaRA1NCLOUD
PuckButterflyEffect
Storm Spiritblessing
ClockwerkTz.
Pugna出省
Keeper of the Lightmercy
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 52%
Series resultEagle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2