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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Igniteloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Go alongwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ignite

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponlo · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Deth · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Deth · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dust · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Ponlo · 2 games
50%

Go along

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 1 game
100%
Mars
Mars
Killa · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 85 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
195 picks · 222 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 395 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
167 picks · 225 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 260 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Go along
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Go along
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
Ignite 45%Go along 55%
The model gave 55% on Go along — the game was taken by Go along in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaUlu
52% · 27 games48% · 98 games
DawnbreakerKilla
Dawnbreaker
Wraith King
Wraith KingDeth
50% · 14 games51% · 122 games
Dark WillowTK
Dark Willow
Kunkka
KunkkaDust
52% · 36 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPonlo
48% · 53 games
Tusk
TuskQYQX
50% · 90 games
Game 2prediction correct36:39
Ignite 45%Go along 55%
The model gave 55% on Go along — the game was taken by Go along in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritUlu
54% · 71 game52% · 194 games
DoomKilla
Doom
Magnus
MagnusDust
52% · 81 game41% · 132 games
PhoenixTK
Phoenix
Sand King
Sand KingDeth
46% · 9 games
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
56% · 42 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorQYQX
55% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGo along · 61%
Series resultGo along 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2