ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 14 games
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
Pugnaoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 13 games
Medusasignature
miCKe · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 13 games
D2 Hustlers
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Davai · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 85 bans
Grimstroke
193 picks · 221 bans
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
Sven
170 picks · 248 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
167 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
Team Liquid 74%D2 Hustlers 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertamiCKe
KunkkaStojkov
Brewmaster33
BroodmotherDavai
PangolierNisha
Faceless VoidShad
Nature's ProphetBoxi
GrimstrokeStoic
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Invoker9Class
Game 2prediction correct46:10
Team Liquid 75%D2 Hustlers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunamiCKe
WeaverShad
Doom33
PuckStojkov
Earth SpiritNisha
Dark SeerDavai
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Nature's Prophet9Class
Dark WillowBoxi
GrimstrokeStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 90%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2