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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 1 game
100%

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Sven
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 272 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 85 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
193 picks · 221 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
167 picks · 224 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 260 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 73%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:21
Nightshade 27%Team Tickles 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerChodΣX
49% · 77 games44% · 86 games
Naga SirenUlnit
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskKyzko
52% · 179 games45% · 47 games
KunkkaLorenof
Kunkka
56% · 41 game
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
55% · 66 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
49% · 16 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct9:37
Nightshade 28%Team Tickles 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerChodΣX
47% · 72 games47% · 25 games
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKyzko
51% · 22 games56% · 11 games
MuertaUlnit
Muerta
50% · 4 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
48% · 35 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
59% · 19 games
UndyingDukalis
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 87%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2