ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Trustloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Warlocksignature
zzq · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cty · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Team Trust
Chenoften banned
出省 · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
blessing · 2 games
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
blessing · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Linaoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Meepooften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
193 picks · 80 bans
Grimstroke
189 picks · 213 bans
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
162 picks · 219 bans
Earth Spirit
159 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
Team Zero 73%Team Trust 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreCty
LunaRA1NCLOUD
Dazzle7e
Kunkkablessing
Primal BeastBEYOND
Ancient Apparition出省
Weavericeice
Nature's Prophetzzq
Game 2prediction correct47:20
Team Zero 72%Team Trust 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaCty
Naga SirenRA1NCLOUD
Pugna7e
Necrophosblessing
KunkkaBEYOND
Ancient Apparition出省
Primal Beasticeice
Jakirozzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 87%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2