ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IIgniteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 16 games
Techiessignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Ignite
Kunkkaoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dust · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Deth · 2 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
188 picks · 79 bans
Grimstroke
187 picks · 209 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 216 bans
Earth Spirit
158 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Ignite
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Team Aster 71%Ignite 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapoyoyo
MorphlingUlu
Wraith King生死
PangolierDust
KunkkaEcho
Primal BeastDeth
PugnaFrisk
PhoenixPonlo
Shadow DemonFantasy
ClockwerkQYQX
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Team Aster 70%Ignite 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
WeaverUlu
Earth SpiritEcho
OmniknightDust
Magnus生死
TidehunterDeth
PugnaFantasy
ChenQYQX
Dark WillowFrisk
SnapfirePonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 86%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2