ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invadersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Invaders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
187 picks · 79 bans
Grimstroke
187 picks · 207 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 214 bans
Earth Spirit
156 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Invaders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:26
Mad Kings 49%Invaders 51%
The model gave 51% on Invaders — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 56:31.
Game 2prediction missed41:22
Mad Kings 49%Invaders 51%
The model gave 51% on Invaders — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvaders · 51%
Series resultMad Kings 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2