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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GateKeptloss 0:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fart Studioswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GateKept

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Chen · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Chen · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 2 games
0%
Lich
Lich
CHAAANNN · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
50%

Fart Studios

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jenkins · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
BSJ · 3 games
100%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 2 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Newsham · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
186 picks · 79 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
186 picks · 206 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
158 picks · 214 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
156 picks · 250 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Fart Studios
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
GateKept 49%Fart Studios 51%
The model gave 51% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 51%
Series resultFart Studios 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1