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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Qhaliloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
63%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 8 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
38%

Qhali

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 5 games
40%
Clinkz
Clinkz
MonHty · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MonHty · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visage
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
186 picks · 79 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
186 picks · 206 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
158 picks · 214 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
156 picks · 250 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Mad Kings 55%Qhali 45%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAdrx
55% · 40 games53% · 118 games
LinaÑengoflow KELOKE
Lina
Kunkka
KunkkaMr.Jeans
46% · 55 games44% · 82 games
TidehunterHyko
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSmAsH
54% · 89 games51% · 68 games
GrimstrokeJupiter
Grimstroke
Invoker
InvokerGenek
40% · 61 game50% · 158 games
PhoenixShakaLord
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYadomi
57% · 181 game
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 54%
Series resultMad Kings 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1