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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Magnus
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
Crystallis · 12 games
42%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
45%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
185 picks · 204 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
184 picks · 79 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 169 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 250 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
155 picks · 213 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Team Secret 72%MarsBet Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
50% · 86 games52% · 73 games
LifestealerOtaker
Lifestealer
Huskar
HuskarMidOne
63% · 4 games49% · 106 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
46% · 114 games57% · 127 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
Phoenix
PhoenixPuppey
47% · 83 games51% · 94 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskyamich
47% · 113 games
Game 2prediction correct43:39
Team Secret 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 47:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
52% · 82 games51% · 45 games
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMidOne
54% · 61 game48% · 89 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
47% · 84 games47% · 163 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Pugna
Pugnayamich
54% · 43 games48% · 129 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskPuppey
52% · 156 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 86%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2