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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Trustwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Rabbitloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Trust

Chen
Chenoften banned
出省 · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
blessing · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
blessing · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
0%

Evil Rabbit

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 271 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
185 picks · 192 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 389 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
181 picks · 76 bans
51%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 248 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
153 picks · 206 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Team Trust 47%Evil Rabbit 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRA1NCLOUD
53% · 15 games50% · 34 games
LunaQ7
Luna
Kunkka
Kunkkablessing
33% · 8 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerk出省
60% · 11 games
Game 2prediction correct18:15
Team Trust 51%Evil Rabbit 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Trust — the game was taken by Team Trust in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRA1NCLOUD
47% · 15 games44% · 65 games
MorphlingQ7
Morphling
Kunkka
Kunkkablessing
69% · 12 games
Pugna
Pugna出省
55% · 38 games
Game 3prediction missed26:16
Team Trust 46%Evil Rabbit 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Team Trust in 52:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoRA1NCLOUD
little data56% · 5 games
LunaQ7
Luna
Sniper
Sniperblessing
44% · 5 games
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor出省
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 57%
Series resultTeam Trust 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3