ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Invaderswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Medusaoften banned
payk · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Invaders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 190 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 388 bans
Dark Willow
178 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Lava 59%Invaders 41%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Invaders.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 59%
Series resultInvaders 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1