ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 1:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TheRuneloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Windranger
Crystallis · 12 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
TheRune
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 186 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% TheRune
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:4
Team Secret 92%TheRune 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 19:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 92%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1