ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aravaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Arava
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Max · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 186 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Arava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:18
D2 Hustlers 70%Team Arava 30%
The model gave 70% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 70%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1