ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IILOVESABRINAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
Rubick
Bignum · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Bignum · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Egor · 8 games
ILOVESABRINA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 184 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 73 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:4
MoneyMakers 68%ILOVESABRINA 32%
The model gave 68% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 23:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 68%
Series resultMoneyMakers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1