Natus Vincere Junior vs Matreshka Team — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1

series probability

43%57%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Matreshka Teamwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spiritsignature

pma · 13 games

62%

Batrideroften banned

Daze · 11 games

45%

Techiesoften banned

Daze · 10 games

40%

Magnus

pma · 9 games

56%

Pangolieroften banned

toshiyb · 9 games

44%

Void Spirit

Ri4man · 9 games

56%

Doomoften banned

pma · 8 games

38%

Shadow Demon

Daze · 8 games

38%

Matreshka Team

Techiessignature

dark · 8 games

63%

Dark Seersignature

meLes · 6 games

67%

Enchantressoften banned

Lagoona · 6 games

50%

Queen of Painsignature

NattyNarwhal · 6 games

67%

Windranger

Retsu · 6 games

33%

Batrideroften banned

meLes · 5 games

60%

Void Spirit

NattyNarwhal · 5 games

40%

Clockwerk

dark · 4 games

75%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

216 picks · 271 bans

52%

Grimstroke

184 picks · 182 bans

54%

Pangolier

183 picks · 387 bans

53%

Dark Willow

176 picks · 73 bans

52%

Sven

169 picks · 248 bans

57%

Earthshaker

168 picks · 166 bans

59%

Earth Spirit

152 picks · 244 bans

46%

Phoenix

150 picks · 204 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%

Hero pool strength54% Matreshka Team

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total57% Matreshka Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:38

Natus Vincere Junior 44%Matreshka Team 56%

The model gave 56% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 43:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo