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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Neon Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnus
zeal · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Meracle · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
zeal · 4 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 4 games
75%

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hishge · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
184 picks · 178 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 387 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
175 picks · 71 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 242 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
150 picks · 203 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:22
Myth Avenue Gaming 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1