ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
747
Dark Willow
Boomy · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Karl · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
db- · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Yangon Galacticos
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
182 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
175 picks · 71 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 242 bans
Phoenix
150 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:35
747 46%Yangon Galacticos 54%
The model gave 54% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breakerdb-
MorphlingKsh
LunainYourdreaM
Monkey KingYoung PH
PangolierKarl
PugnaBoomy
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 63%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1