ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studiosloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TRTeam Rocketwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Clockwerk
Jenkins · 3 games
Dragon Knight
BSJ · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
Doomoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Newsham · 2 games
Iooften banned
Newsham · 2 games
Juggernaut
BSJ · 2 games
Team Rocket
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
Marci
Husky · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Husky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
182 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
172 picks · 71 bans
Sven
169 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Rocket
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:24
Fart Studios 54%Team Rocket 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 43:38.
Game 2prediction missed18:36
Fart Studios 54%Team Rocket 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 36:16.
Game 3prediction missed49:31
Fart Studios 54%Team Rocket 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 59:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 54%
Series resultTeam Rocket 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3