ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wizard Kingloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wizard King
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Morphlingsignature
423 · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Se · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
423 · 5 games
Magnus
eleven · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 5 games
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
Shadow Demon
ace12 · 5 games
Underlord
eleven · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 382 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 169 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
168 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 165 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 238 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Wizard King
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
Wizard King 31%IHC Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 21:22.
Game 2prediction correct9:39
Wizard King 31%IHC Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 20:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 69%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2