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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Trustloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 8 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 7 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cty · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
iceice · 5 games
40%

Team Trust

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 382 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
178 picks · 169 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
168 picks · 70 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 165 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 238 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
148 picks · 193 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Team Zero 74%Team Trust 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCty
54% · 33 games54% · 59 games
Earthshakerblessing
Earthshaker
Kunkka
Kunkka7e
44% · 29 games45% · 88 games
Templar AssassinRA1NCLOUD
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBEYOND
45% · 94 games55% · 42 games
Chen出省
Chen
Weaver
Weavericeice
41% · 9 games
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
59% · 24 games
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Team Zero 74%Team Trust 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCty
52% · 11 games56% · 48 games
Faceless VoidRA1NCLOUD
Faceless Void
Dazzle
Dazzle7e
44% · 5 games44% · 80 games
Linablessing
Lina
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBEYOND
45% · 21 game59% · 20 games
Chen出省
Chen
Muerta
Muertaiceice
43% · 18 games
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
51% · 93 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 89%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2