ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionKKaiserwin 1:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kaiser
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 10 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 381 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 169 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
168 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 165 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 238 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:35
Kaiser 28%Mad Kings 72%
The model gave 72% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Kaiser in 1:04:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 72%
Series resultKaiser 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1