ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TRTeam Rocketloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
No games played over 6 months.
Team Rocket
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 378 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 164 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 192 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Bammysoy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:41
Bammysoy 56%Team Rocket 44%
The model gave 56% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArms
SpectreSammyboy
LinaRRL
DawnbreakerMoo
Nature's ProphetSanctified
ZeusMo13ei
58% · 25 games
MuertaBliNcc
50% · 182 games
Treant ProtectorHusky
Game 2prediction missed9:39
Bammysoy 56%Team Rocket 44%
The model gave 56% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Team Rocket in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightRRL
LinaMo13ei
LifestealerArms
Lone DruidSammyboy
Dark WillowSanctified
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
43% · 16 games
WeaverBliNcc
52% · 34 games
MarciHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 62%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2