ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TWTarget Workersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Clockwerk
Jenkins · 3 games
Dragon Knight
BSJ · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
Doomoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Newsham · 2 games
Iooften banned
Newsham · 2 games
Juggernaut
BSJ · 2 games
Target Workers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 377 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 163 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 191 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:31
Fart Studios 54%Target Workers 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 1:02:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 54%
Series resultFart Studios 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1