ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alliancewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Windranger
Crystallis · 12 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 377 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 162 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 237 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Team Secret 77%Alliance 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Alliance in 38:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 77%
Series resultAlliance 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1