ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenwin 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Cyber Goliathsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
No games played over 6 months.
Cyber Goliaths
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 157 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Atlas Burden
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Atlas Burden 61%Cyber Goliaths 39%
The model gave 61% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSmiling Knight
LinaEthereal
Primal Beastnicky`cool
PhoenixPanto
PugnaOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 67%
Series resultAtlas Burden 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1