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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MarsBet Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
29%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windranger
StoneBank · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
40%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 375 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
176 picks · 157 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
166 picks · 69 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
146 picks · 187 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:50
B8 Esports 63%MarsBet Team 37%
The model gave 63% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 41:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 63%
Series resultMarsBet Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1