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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 15 games
47%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Saksa · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 13 games
77%

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
MidOne · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
473 picks · 286 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
327 picks · 132 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
325 picks · 142 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 454 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 426 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 291 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
269 picks · 208 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
266 picks · 232 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 30%
Hero pool strength60% Team Yandex
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total94% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Team Yandex 81%MOUZ 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
50% · 122 games58% · 104 games
Kez423
Kez
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
39% · 15 games42% · 121 game
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
47% · 66 games59% · 90 games
LargoBOOM
Largo
Dazzle
DazzleMalady
50% · 91 game49% · 140 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
45% · 192 games61% · 31 game
Witch DoctorMoOz
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed28:35
Team Yandex 82%MOUZ 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWatson
54% · 70 games45% · 69 games
Clinkz423
Clinkz
Mars
MarsATF
56% · 169 games47% · 79 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Sand King
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
58% · 111 games45% · 261 game
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockMalady
51% · 119 games44% · 155 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
53% · 139 games49% · 44 games
Witch DoctorMoOz
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct28:30
Team Yandex 83%MOUZ 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 181 game46% · 82 games
Luna423
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
52% · 135 games57% · 181 game
DoomBOOM
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
48% · 126 games34% · 12 games
Outworld DestroyerSupream^
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
TechiesSaksa
48% · 182 games53% · 59 games
Witch DoctorMoOz
Witch Doctor
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
50% · 157 games48% · 447 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 94%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3