PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 22 games
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 19 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Banesignature
Riddys · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 11 games
Hokori
Hoodwink
Asao · 9 games
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 4 games
Phoenix
Genek · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
463 picks · 284 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 136 bans
Mirana
313 picks · 127 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 447 bans
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 290 bans
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 417 bans
Clockwerk
270 picks · 213 bans
Undying
265 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:15
Natus Vincere 86%Hokori 14%
The model gave 86% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svengotthejuice
Tinypayk
Dark Seerpma
UnderlordVitaly
Ember SpiritNiku
HoodwinkAsao
Dark WillowDaze
BaneGardick
Winter WyvernRiddys
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Natus Vincere 85%Hokori 15%
The model gave 85% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidgotthejuice
Lifestealerpayk
Underlordpma
TidehunterVitaly
Ember SpiritNiku
TechiesAsao
RubickDaze
MiranaGardick
Winter WyvernRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 96%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2