?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 34 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 19 games
53%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 18 games
44%

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lelis · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
460 picks · 283 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
312 picks · 125 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 134 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 444 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 289 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
281 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 217 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:24
1w Team 63%Team Nemesis 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
48% · 139 games38% · 78 games
LunaJaCkky
Luna
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
52% · 102 games57% · 106 games
LinaMo13ei
Lina
Axe
Axe33
52% · 161 game49% · 218 games
LargoSabeRLight-
Largo
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernWhitemon
56% · 133 games51% · 137 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Tusk
TuskAri
50% · 257 games46% · 253 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed19:40
1w Team 62%Team Nemesis 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
46% · 325 games50% · 391 game
TinyJaCkky
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
51% · 135 games54% · 197 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
little data56% · 224 games
LargoSabeRLight-
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
49% · 659 games54% · 199 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
47% · 173 games45% · 281 game
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed20:30
1w Team 64%Team Nemesis 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
52% · 204 games54% · 23 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
46% · 124 games52% · 232 games
Shadow FiendJaCkky
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
46% · 73 games51% · 312 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerAri
48% · 417 games52% · 270 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
49% · 166 games51% · 147 games
Winter WyvernNARMAN
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3