ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MAG Youthloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Tino- · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 7 games
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Palos · 7 games
MAG Youth
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
173 picks · 154 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
164 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% MAG Youth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Execration 83%MAG Youth 17%
The model gave 83% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 83%
Series resultExecration 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1