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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

No games played over 6 months.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 376 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
173 picks · 154 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
164 picks · 70 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 232 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
145 picks · 185 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Nightshade
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nightshade 30%MarsBet Team 70%
The model gave 70% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Game 2prediction missed
Nightshade 30%MarsBet Team 70%
The model gave 70% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Game 3prediction missed
Nightshade 30%MarsBet Team 70%
The model gave 70% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 70%
Series resultNightshade 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3