European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 378 bans
Grimstroke
173 picks · 156 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
167 picks · 73 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MarsBet Team 58%Team Hryvnia 42%
The model gave 58% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Game 2prediction correct
MarsBet Team 58%Team Hryvnia 42%
The model gave 58% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 58%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2