?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
71%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
71%
Techies
Techies
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Medusa
Medusasignature
miCKe · 16 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Nisha · 16 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 15 games
53%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 30 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 26 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 23 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 382 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
169 picks · 154 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
165 picks · 70 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 234 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 86 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:19
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
62% · 28 gameslittle data
NecrophosQuinn
Necrophos
Invoker
InvokerNisha
36% · 47 games54% · 62 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Kunkka
Kunkkazai
52% · 50 games46% · 39 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
42% · 18 games54% · 65 games
PhoenixSeleri
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
50% · 67 games52% · 44 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct14:26
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
63% · 35 games54% · 27 games
Razordyrachyo
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
47% · 60 games50% · 18 games
Lone DruidAce
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
46% · 97 games48% · 222 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaBoxi
53% · 77 games52% · 47 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
49% · 131 game47% · 86 games
PhoenixSeleri
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct8:33
Team Liquid 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
52% · 129 games44% · 31 game
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 62 games40% · 15 games
Weaverdyrachyo
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
51% · 34 games54% · 149 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
49% · 83 games51% · 129 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
46% · 72 games48% · 56 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3