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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 21 game
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
72%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 17 games
82%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Collapse · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%

Team Liquid

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 20 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
71%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
71%
Techies
Techies
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 16 games
56%
Medusa
Medusasignature
miCKe · 16 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 384 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
166 picks · 153 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
162 picks · 70 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 231 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)85% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
Team Spirit 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
51% · 45 games53% · 64 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Axe
AxeCollapse
47% · 40 games56% · 47 games
MagnusNisha
Magnus
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
50% · 41 game47% · 75 games
Tidehunterzai
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
45% · 83 games52% · 72 games
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
48% · 91 game54% · 42 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed22:33
Team Spirit 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
46% · 30 games42% · 25 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
45% · 71 game50% · 98 games
Spirit Breakerzai
Spirit Breaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
49% · 99 games54% · 209 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
52% · 101 game51% · 47 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
53% · 152 games48% · 74 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct35:36
Team Spirit 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
44% · 19 games53% · 26 games
SpectremiCKe
Spectre
Tiny
TinyLarl
45% · 215 games51% · 51 game
Brewmasterzai
Brewmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
63% · 20 games55% · 76 games
RikiNisha
Riki
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
49% · 65 games56% · 155 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Invoker
InvokerMira
41% · 57 games52% · 68 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3