Всероссийские студенческие соревнования билайна 2023 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionССинергияloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UUltimate.teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Синергия
No games played over 6 months.
Ultimate.team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 384 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
Grimstroke
162 picks · 153 bans
Dark Willow
160 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 231 bans
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Синергия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Ultimate.team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Синергия 45%Ultimate.team 55%
The model gave 55% on Ultimate.team — the game was taken by Ultimate.team.
Game 2prediction missed
Синергия 45%Ultimate.team 55%
The model gave 55% on Ultimate.team — the game was taken by Синергия.
Game 3prediction correct
Синергия 45%Ultimate.team 55%
The model gave 55% on Ultimate.team — the game was taken by Ultimate.team.
Model check result
Model favoriteUltimate.team · 55%
Series resultUltimate.team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3