Всероссийские студенческие соревнования билайна 2023 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionСКСъезд КПССwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Derzhawinloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Съезд КПСС
No games played over 6 months.
Derzhawin
Bounty Hunter
smN · 1 game
Magnus
Tabletkee · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Fezor · 1 game
Techies
Fezor · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
smN · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
Tabletkee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 384 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
Grimstroke
162 picks · 153 bans
Dark Willow
160 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 231 bans
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Съезд КПСС
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Derzhawin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Съезд КПСС 49%Derzhawin 51%
The model gave 51% on Derzhawin — the game was taken by Съезд КПСС.
Game 2prediction correct
Съезд КПСС 49%Derzhawin 51%
The model gave 51% on Derzhawin — the game was taken by Derzhawin.
Game 3prediction missed
Съезд КПСС 49%Derzhawin 51%
The model gave 51% on Derzhawin — the game was taken by Съезд КПСС.
Model check result
Model favoriteDerzhawin · 51%
Series resultСъезд КПСС 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3