The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
Techies
Fng · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 7 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
Rubick
198 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 409 bans
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
Skywrath Mage
167 picks · 94 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
Grimstroke
162 picks · 152 bans
Dark Willow
160 picks · 68 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:21
Virtus.pro 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:01:24.
Game 2prediction missed25:5
Virtus.pro 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2