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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
64%

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 38 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 32 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 31 game
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 29 games
79%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
198 picks · 93 bans
40%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 409 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
184 picks · 262 bans
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
167 picks · 94 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
162 picks · 152 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
159 picks · 68 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:20
Talon Esports 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:09:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverJabz
49% · 14 games52% · 44 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Spectre
Spectre23savage
43% · 12 games64% · 7 games
DazzlegpK~
Dazzle
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
49% · 35 games55% · 39 games
TidehunterPure~
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQ
44% · 69 games45% · 17 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionOli
62% · 22 games46% · 45 games
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Talon Esports 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:09:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willow
Dark Willow23savage
49% · 47 games55% · 27 games
MuertaNightfall
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressQ
50% · 162 games45% · 61 game
InvokergpK~
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
42% · 49 games46% · 55 games
PudgePure~
Pudge
Riki
RikiMikoto
56% · 42 games54% · 179 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Marci
MarciOli
49% · 67 games57% · 45 games
IoSave-
Io
Game 3prediction correct14:32
Talon Esports 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 54:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
51% · 247 games56% · 64 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
InvokerJabz
47% · 69 games49% · 167 games
Spirit BreakerPure~
Spirit Breaker
Puck
PuckMikoto
42% · 144 games54% · 206 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskQ
48% · 145 games57% · 139 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOli
47% · 147 games50% · 176 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 68%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3