The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 19 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 18 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nine · 18 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
212 picks · 270 bans
Rubick
198 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 408 bans
Sven
184 picks · 262 bans
Skywrath Mage
167 picks · 94 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
Grimstroke
161 picks · 151 bans
Dark Willow
158 picks · 68 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:34
Tundra Esports 76%Entity 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 48:23.
Game 2prediction missed15:28
Tundra Esports 76%Entity 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 42:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2