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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 8 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Timado · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
207 picks · 102 bans
41%
Pangolier
Pangolier
195 picks · 418 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
170 picks · 97 bans
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
167 picks · 169 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
160 picks · 151 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
158 picks · 342 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
nouns 44%TSM 56%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 57:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenK1
49% · 106 games38% · 36 games
Bristlebackkasane
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMoo
55% · 56 games52% · 34 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGunnar
41% · 68 games52% · 254 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYamSun
53% · 195 games48% · 41 game
MuertaAri
Muerta
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLelis
55% · 121 game51% · 181 game
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed19:23
nouns 46%TSM 54%
The model gave 54% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 1:08:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle
DazzleMoo
53% · 20 games53% · 20 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerK1
42% · 48 games60% · 171 game
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGunnar
49% · 97 games53% · 134 games
Primal Beastbryle-
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
56% · 264 games38% · 64 games
PhoenixAri
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYamSun
52% · 30 games43% · 70 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 62%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2