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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 22 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 22 games
32%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 22 games
45%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 20 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 18 games
39%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 14 games
36%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 32 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
dyrachyo · 31 game
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 29 games
62%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
52%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 26 games
92%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 25 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
207 picks · 102 bans
41%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 417 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
170 picks · 97 bans
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
160 picks · 151 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
158 picks · 342 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total86% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:35
Evil Geniuses 29%Gaimin Gladiators 71%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:09:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPakazs
57% · 82 games37% · 38 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChris Luck
52% · 107 games52% · 311 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
53% · 84 games49% · 35 games
Weaverdyrachyo
Weaver
Tusk
TuskMatthew
50% · 197 games53% · 168 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanda
53% · 173 games40% · 91 game
InvokertOfu
Invoker
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Evil Geniuses 27%Gaimin Gladiators 73%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPakazs
47% · 29 games50% · 4 games
NecrophosQuinn
Necrophos
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
50% · 60 games41% · 25 games
DazzleAce
Dazzle
Magnus
MagnusChris Luck
34% · 67 games58% · 91 game
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Faceless Void
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMatthew
49% · 145 games49% · 316 games
TinytOfu
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanda
57% · 155 games50% · 20 games
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 86%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2