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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%
Pugna
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
29%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
天命 · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
225 picks · 112 bans
41%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 425 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
188 picks · 263 bans
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 100 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 168 bans
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
163 picks · 349 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
158 picks · 150 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:28
nouns 40%Azure Ray 60%
The model gave 60% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerK1
46% · 19 games42% · 58 games
Centaur WarrunnerChalice
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterMoo
49% · 75 games40% · 25 games
Spectrelou
Spectre
Monkey King
Monkey KingGunnar
48% · 108 games48% · 131 game
LeshracSomnus
Leshrac
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLelis
55% · 68 games44% · 38 games
Muertafy
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressYamSun
54% · 118 games60% · 136 games
Treant Protector天命
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct21:39
nouns 43%Azure Ray 57%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
49% · 87 games56% · 59 games
Chaos Knightlou
Chaos Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGunnar
54% · 95 games41% · 104 games
PuckSomnus
Puck
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMoo
49% · 66 games48% · 109 games
DawnbreakerChalice
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
47% · 97 games52% · 246 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYamSun
52% · 238 games52% · 65 games
Grimstroke天命
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2