?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%

9Pandas

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 44 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 34 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 25 games
48%
Techies
Techies
Antares · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
224 picks · 112 bans
41%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 425 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
188 picks · 262 bans
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 100 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 167 bans
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
163 picks · 349 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
157 picks · 293 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:20
LGD Gaming 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:04:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willow
Dark Willowshiro
44% · 109 games52% · 159 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
56% · 177 games61% · 24 games
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Outworld Destroyer
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
53% · 119 games49% · 182 games
Primal BeastMieRo
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
47% · 199 games45% · 485 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
47% · 288 games56% · 42 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct43:10
LGD Gaming 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectreshiro
62% · 15 games62% · 48 games
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerniu
65% · 15 games45% · 76 games
Earthshakerkiyotaka
Earthshaker
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
49% · 50 games39% · 50 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
46% · 106 games58% · 26 games
MuertaAntares
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
49% · 42 games54% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitionSolo
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2