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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
72%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
72%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Nisha · 18 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
224 picks · 112 bans
41%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 424 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
188 picks · 261 bans
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 100 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
164 picks · 167 bans
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
163 picks · 349 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
157 picks · 150 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Team Liquid 62%Talon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
49% · 129 games52% · 197 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Spectre
SpectremiCKe
47% · 76 games50% · 62 games
KunkkaMikoto
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
52% · 267 games49% · 113 games
TidehunterJabz
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
50% · 207 games50% · 251 game
Nature's ProphetQ
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
44% · 101 game54% · 157 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct31:20
Team Liquid 64%Talon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
53% · 25 games49% · 115 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzai
47% · 65 games48% · 49 games
ZeusMikoto
Zeus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
55% · 99 games43% · 25 games
BristlebackJabz
Bristleback
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
50% · 15 games58% · 69 games
EarthshakerQ
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 171 game46% · 117 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2