The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Azure Ray
Batridersignature
天命 · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
Pugna
天命 · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
fy · 10 games
Doomsignature
fy · 10 games
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 10 games
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 446 bans
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
Sven
191 picks · 263 bans
Skywrath Mage
179 picks · 106 bans
Beastmaster
175 picks · 374 bans
Dark Seer
173 picks · 326 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:43
Entity 44%Azure Ray 56%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 56:34.
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Entity 44%Azure Ray 56%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 34:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2