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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 27 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
46%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nine · 18 games
50%

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
29%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 445 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
190 picks · 262 bans
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
179 picks · 106 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
175 picks · 372 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 325 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Tundra Esports 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
49% · 194 games51% · 105 games
Naga SirenK1
Naga Siren
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTopson
45% · 53 games50% · 20 games
Witch DoctorMoo
Witch Doctor
Sven
SvenSkiter
47% · 88 games55% · 82 games
EarthshakerGunnar
Earthshaker
Weaver
WeaverNine
43% · 16 games58% · 178 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
44% · 67 games49% · 33 games
Ancient ApparitionYamSun
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed20:27
Tundra Esports 73%nouns 27%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerTopson
40% · 46 games45% · 35 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
57% · 47 gameslittle data
Ogre MagiGunnar
Ogre Magi
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
52% · 65 games47% · 70 games
BrewmasterMoo
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
54% · 48 games54% · 84 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
60% · 65 games42% · 82 games
PhoenixYamSun
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2