The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 38 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
dyrachyo · 32 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 29 games
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 28 games
Talon Esports
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Oli · 16 games
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 442 bans
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 269 bans
Sven
188 picks · 260 bans
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 106 bans
Beastmaster
174 picks · 372 bans
Dark Seer
172 picks · 323 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:12
Gaimin Gladiators 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterAce
Naga Siren23savage
PuckQuinn
Wraith KingJabz
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
InvokerMikoto
MuertatOfu
TinyQ
PhoenixSeleri
PugnaOli
Game 2prediction missed30:35
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:05:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
InvokerMikoto
PangolierQuinn
BristlebackJabz
Primal BeastAce
Bloodseeker23savage
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Ancient ApparitionOli
UndyingSeleri
TuskQ
Game 3prediction missed22:31
Gaimin Gladiators 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit BreakerAce
Morphling23savage
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
TinyMikoto
LinaQuinn
DawnbreakerJabz
MuertatOfu
Shadow DemonOli
JakiroSeleri
EarthshakerQ
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3