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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 32 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 7 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 439 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 268 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
187 picks · 260 bans
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 106 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 372 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 30%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:36
TSM 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 55:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
46% · 77 games49% · 60 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Invoker
Invokerbryle-
43% · 58 games48% · 96 games
Spirit BreakerNoticed
Spirit Breaker
Omniknight
Omniknightkasane
54% · 7 games61% · 69 games
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAri
46% · 34 games50% · 40 games
Grimstrokesayuw
Grimstroke
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
54% · 113 games53% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionFng
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed11:36
TSM 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbryle-
59% · 69 games45% · 59 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Lone Druid
Lone Druidkasane
57% · 11 games41% · 24 games
Wraith KingNoticed
Wraith King
Tusk
TuskAri
55% · 122 games50% · 36 games
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
52% · 28 games36% · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionsayuw
Ancient Apparition
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
66% · 9 games42% · 105 games
PhoenixFng
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 61%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2