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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 14 games
57%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 34 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 33 games
73%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 431 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
203 picks · 267 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
184 picks · 259 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 369 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 321 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 105 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Talon Esports 47%PSG Quest 53%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer23savage
53% · 69 games51% · 107 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
40% · 10 games42% · 226 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 227 games52% · 110 games
TidehunterTobi
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyQ
51% · 348 games51% · 96 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaOli
48% · 153 games55% · 268 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed44:18
Talon Esports 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
50% · 98 games52% · 61 game
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
58% · 23 games48% · 214 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikoto
50% · 262 games53% · 60 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Tusk
TuskQ
49% · 364 games47% · 584 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
53% · 242 games47% · 70 games
Vengeful SpiritKaori
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2